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作者 Farooque, Mahmud
書名 The evolution of technological forecasting and contemporary policy systems, 1935--1999
國際標準書號 049669139X
book jacket
說明 340 p
附註 Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 65-02, Section: A, page: 0670
Director: Don E. Kash
Thesis (Ph.D.)--George Mason University, 2004
This dissertation investigated the evolution of technological forecasting and contemporary policy systems since 1935. Using a qualitative case study approach, it examined five historically important episodes in technological forecasting, broadly defined, to capture the evolution of methods, contexts, and institutions; the effect of learning and adaptations; and the impact on science and engineering planning. In terms of impact, the dissertation found that the final outcome was more favorable when the forecast emphasis was on the substantive rather than on the methodological content and when top leadership remained sufficiently engaged and committed to the success of the endeavor. Despite methodological similarities, the newer initiatives like roadmapping and foresight remain distinct from the older forecasting approaches; distinctions that could be ascertained using the technology fusion concept. Still, much of the learning associated with the development of all five episodes was self contained and not directly related to one another. Even the extended network learning trajectories, with one exception, remained sufficiently separate, based on technological and institutional contexts established by long wave rhythms and techno-economic paradigms
School code: 0883
DDC
Host Item Dissertation Abstracts International 65-02A
主題 History of Science
Business Administration, Management
Political Science, Public Administration
0585
0454
0617
Alt Author George Mason University
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