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作者 Manski, Charles F
書名 Public policy in an uncertain world : analysis and decisions / Charles F. Manski
出版項 Cambridge, Mass. : Harvard University Press, 2013
國際標準書號 9780674066892 (hbk.)
0674066898 (hbk.)
book jacket
館藏地 索書號 處理狀態 OPAC 訊息 條碼
 歐美所圖書館  320.6 M3181 2013    在架上  -  30500101481771
 人文社會聯圖  H97 .M368 2013    在架上    30660020117243
 經濟所圖書館  H97 M368 2013    在架上    30510100321027
說明 xi, 199 p. ; 25 cm
附註 Includes bibliographical references (p. [183]-191) and index
Policy Analysis. Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude ; Predicting Policy Outcomes ; Predicting Behavior. -- Policy Decisions. Planning with Partial Knowledge ; Diversified Treatment Choice ; Policy Analysis and Decisions
"Public policy advocates routinely assert that "research has shown" a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? And how does that analysis affect the way policy is made, on issues ranging from vaccination to minimum wage to FDA drug approval? Charles F. Manski argues here that current policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. By failing to account for uncertainty in an unpredictable world, policy analysis misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Public Policy in an Uncertain World critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve how policy research is conducted and how policy makers use research. Consumers of policy analysis, whether civil servants, journalists, or concerned citizens, need to understand research methodology well enough to properly assess reported findings. In the current model, policy researchers base their predictions on strong assumptions. But as Manski demonstrates, strong assumptions lead to less credible predictions than weaker ones. His alternative approach takes account of uncertainty and thereby moves policy analysis away from incredible certitude and toward honest portrayal of partial knowledge. Manski describes analysis of research on such topics as the effect of the death penalty on homicide, of unemployment insurance on job-seeking, and of preschooling on high school graduation. And he uses other real-world scenarios to illustrate the course he recommends, in which policy makers form reasonable decisions based on partial knowledge of outcomes, and journalists evaluate research claims more closely, with a skeptical eye toward expressions of certitude."--Publisher's website
主題 Policy sciences
Public administration
Decision making
Political planning -- Evaluation
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