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書名 Fault lines in China's economic terrain / Charles Wolf, Jr. ... [et al.]
出版項 Santa Monica, CA : RAND, c2003
國際標準書號 0833033441 (pbk.)
book jacket
館藏地 索書號 處理狀態 OPAC 訊息 條碼
 歐美所圖書館  330.951 F2738 2003    在架上    30500101166711
 人文社會聯圖  HC427.95 F37 2003    在架上    30650000009627
說明 xxvii, 207 p. : ill. ; 23 cm
附註 "Prepared for the Office of Net Assessment, Department of Defense, and the Smith Richardson Foundation."
"National Defense Research Institute."
-- Potential adversities confronting China's continued economic growth -- Part I. China's institutional and structural fault lines. Massive unemployment and rural poverty -- Economic effects of corruption -- Part II. Sectoral fault lines. Epidemic disease: a wild card in China's economic future? -- China's health progress since the liberation : a long march against infectious and parasitic disease -- China's current health profile in international and geographic perspective -- Prospects for epidemic disease in contemporary China : the risks of behavior-born communicable illnesses --Modeling possible trajectories for an HIV epidemic in China -- Economic implications for China of HIV breakout -- Water resources and pollution -- Estimating water supply and demand -- Water resources and regional disparities -- Demand estimation for agriculture, industry, and municipalities -- Identifying the consequences of flood, water shortage and pollution on the economy -- Effects on agriculture -- Effects on industry, municipal water supply, and public health -- Alternatives to abate the problem, and the expected cost and benefits -- Water diversion from South to North -- Water saving technologies and flood control -- A market-approach to demand and pollution management -- Water treatment and recycling -- Economic and security implications -- Effect of water problems on productivity, capital and labor -- Security: food sufficiency and regional conflicts -- Future scenarios and possible adversities -- GDP effects of an energy price shock -- Some basic data on the Chinese energy sector and Chinese GDP -- Oil price effects of a severe oil supply disruption -- Effects on Chinese GDP -- Oil market effects -- Part II. Financial fault lines. China's fragile financial system and the state-owned enterprises -- An ineffectual central bank -- A fragile commercial banking system -- Unregulated financial institutions -- Adverse scenarios: financial crises and slack economic growth -- Possible shrinkage of foreign capital inflows -- Introduction: some relevant background -- What will affect FDI in China in the 2002-2010 period? -- The internal political and economic environment -- External influences on FDI in China. -- Effects of FDI on China's economic growth -- Two mechanisms -- Effects on growth -- Conclusions -- Security fault lines. Taiwan and other potential conflicts -- Background and current status -- The possibility of serious deterioration from the status quo -- Other conflict possibilities -- Conclusions : fault lines in China's economic terrain -- Findings and bottom lines -- Unemployment, poverty, and social unrest -- Economic effects of corruption -- HIV/AIDS and epidemic disease -- Water resources and pollution -- Energy consumption and prices -- China's fragile financial system and state-owned enterprises -- Possible shrinkage of foreign direct investment -- Taiwan and other potential conflicts -- Summary -- Epilogue
主題 Public health -- China
China -- Economic conditions -- 2000-
China -- Social conditions -- 2000-
Alt Author Wolf, Charles, 1924-
United States. Dept. of Defense. Office of Net Assessment
Smith Richardson Foundation
National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)
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