Author Lacalle, Daniel
Title The Energy World Is Flat : Opportunities from the End of Peak Oil
Imprint New York : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, 2015
©2015
book jacket
Edition 1st ed
Descript 1 online resource (314 pages)
text txt rdacontent
computer c rdamedia
online resource cr rdacarrier
Note Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Disclaimer -- Chapter 1 The Mother of All Battles. The Flattening and Globalization of the Energy World -- Nuclear politics -- The sustained spike in natural gas prices -- Fracking and the collapse in US natural gas prices -- US tight oil -- Geopolitics and high crude oil prices -- Expensive oil, cheap natural gas -- The market does not attack, it defends itself -- Winners and losers -- Chapter 2 Lessons from the Internet Revolution and the Dotcom Bubble -- The bubble path -- Technological revolutions that increase supply. The "game changers" -- High expectations attract large amounts of capital -- Excessive expectations for demand growth result in overcapacity -- Think "against the box" -- The strategic premium results in overcapacity -- Overcapacity eventually reprices assets and the cost of services -- New technologies displace older and more expensive ones -- New technologies increase competition and create deflationary forces -- The bubble accelerated the impact of the revolution -- Timing: there is no such thing as a crystal ball -- Investors must avoid the growth mirage and value traps -- Lessons not to forget -- Chapter 3 The 10 Forces that are Flattening the Energy World -- Is the energy world flat? -- Chapter 4 Flattener #1 - Geopolitics: The Two Sides of the Energy Security Coin -- The oil weapon -- The revenge of the oil economy -- The Arab Spring -- Iraq 2014, the crisis that brought prices . . . down! -- The Venezuelan Spring -- Reserve nationalism and barriers of entry -- The gas weapon -- Russia versus Ukraine and the west? -- Ukraine shale gas -- The annexation of Crimea -- Europe needs Russia's gas . . . but for how long? -- Notes -- Chapter 5 Flattener #2 - The Energy Reserves and Resources Glut -- What energy scarcity? -- Reserves and resources
Crude oil concentration, but no shortage -- OPEC almighty -- Reserve protectionism -- Marginal cost of production -- The "unconventional" resources -- Discoveries vs. additions: "can we rely on finding new oil fields?" -- Sorry, no peak oil -- Peak oil is a myth -- The spirit of peak oil -- No Peak Gas Either -- Gas formulas: "Water at Coca-Cola prices" -- Finally an Asian benchmark -- Let's buy Africa! -- Notes -- Chapter 6 Flattener #3 - Horizontal Drilling and Fracking -- Never bet against an engineer -- Technology increases volume -- Innovation vs. imitation -- "Fracking" and horizontal drilling -- Myths and realities of shale gas and tight oil -- What environmental impact? -- What contamination of drinking water aquifers? -- What flow back? -- How about water scarcity? -- What induced seismic activity? -- What methane migration? -- Are horizontal drilling and fracking commercially viable? -- Are governments supportive of fracking? -- How about shale gas and tight oil in China? -- What about the EROEI of shale gas? -- Notes -- Chapter 7 Flattener #4 - The Energy Broadband -- Pipelines open new markets -- Pipelines are very capital- and time-intensive investments -- The Eurasian continental network -- LNG and the globalization of natural gas -- From regional to global -- LNG super-cycle -- The winners and losers of the big asset write-off -- Solid methane -- Storage bottlenecks and commodity islands -- The high watermark and volatility dampeners -- Global strategic petroleum reserves -- Shipping, floating pipelines and storage -- The boom and bust of shipping -- Debottlenecking and super-backwardation -- Notes -- Chapter 8 Flattener #5 - Overcapacity -- Déjà-Vu -- Diplomatic demand outlook -- Saudi Arabia heavy sour crude oil -- Location, location, location -- Pro-cyclical behaviour -- Notes
Chapter 9 Flattener #6 - Globalization, Industrialization, and Urbanization -- Testing the hypothesis of "Ever-Increasing" demand -- Demographic trend #1. The global population is growing, but at a slower pace -- Population growth vs. economic growth vs. energy demand growth -- The "Diplomatic" demand clause -- Notes -- Chapter 10 Flattener #7 - Demand Destruction -- More with less -- The "Invisible Hand" of efficiency -- The "Visible Hand" of efficiency -- Note -- Chapter 11 Flattener #8 - Demand Displacement -- The Battle for Transportation Demand -- What the production engineers missed -- The "Challengers" -- Biofuels -- Natural gas -- Bi-fuel engines -- Coal to liquids (CTL) and gas to liquids (GTL) -- Electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids (HEVs) -- Air transportation -- Sea transportation -- The end of crude oil's monopoly in transportation -- #1 Upfront cost -- #2 Running cost -- #3 Range and convenience -- The "Chicken and Egg" of Refuelling Stations -- Re-fuelling at home -- #4 Performance -- #5 Environment and subsidies -- #6 Safety -- #7 Security of supply -- The new frontier: hydrogen fuel -- "Who killed the electric car?" -- #1 Government bail-outs and subsidies -- #2 The tax cash cow -- #3 The wrong model for the industry? -- The Battle for Electricity and Industrial Demand -- Future fuel mix -- The Energy Domino -- Natural gas displaces coal in power generation -- US natural gas displaces diesel in transportation -- Solar displaces crude oil for power generation in Saudi Arabia -- Renewables displace natural gas from peak power demand -- The "visible hand" of environmental regulation displaces coal -- The "visible hand" of politics displaces nuclear -- The transmission to equity valuations -- Notes -- Chapter 12 Flattener #9 - Regulation and Government Intervention -- The role of the government -- Regulation vs. free markets
The virtuous mix of regulation and free markets -- The vicious mix of regulation and politics -- Carrot and stick -- Privatization and deregulation are not the same -- Independence of the regulator -- The political cycle is too short -- The War on Pollution and Coal -- The war on pollution -- The war on coal -- Technology vs. pollution -- Regulatory constraints to coal plants -- Coal subsidies -- The clean and dirty spreads -- Second order effects from cheap coal -- The world of coal is flat -- Renewable Energy and the Disinflation of Power Prices -- Negative electricity prices -- The collapse in the valuation of European utilities -- Renewables have changed the rules of power generation -- Implications from the new rules -- Are retail consumers better off? -- The world of wind power is becoming flat -- Don Quixote's windmills -- Wind power -- Wind competitiveness -- The world of solar power is far from flat -- Germany and the European Union love affair with solar -- The debacle of solar equities -- What went wrong? -- Marginal cost of solar PV is getting cheaper -- Solar leasing and green bonds -- Biofuels and Food Inflation -- Energy security in disguise -- The "regulatory carrot" -- The "regulatory stick" -- Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) -- The "ethanol blend wall" -- Food inflation and inequality -- Shortages and physical hoarding as flatteners -- Energy efficiency of biofuels -- Meat prices: "corn with legs" -- The super-cycle of farmland and agricultural logistical infrastructure -- Genetically modified crops -- A flatter agricultural world -- Notes -- Chapter 13 Flattener #10 - Fiscal, Monetary, and Macroeconomic Flatteners -- The "OPEC put" -- At what level would OPEC stop defending the price? -- The Btu that broke OPEC's back -- Energy consumption in producing countries -- Mortgaged future production -- The paradox of plenty
The Oil Tax Weapon -- Consumer governments addicted to oil taxes -- Consumer governments hostage of oil subsidies -- Government defence budgets -- Marshmallow behaviour -- Let's change the tax rules -- Monetary Experiments and the Credit Risk Time Bomb -- Monetary experiments -- Black gold -- The race to the bottom -- The generational debate -- The monetary time bomb of credit risk -- Financial Flows. Let's Blame the Speculators -- Politicians and regulators pass the blame -- Causality -- Market manipulation -- Investor blow-ups -- Value at risk -- Notes -- Chapter 14 Implications and Opportunities in the Financial Markets -- Concluding Remarks -- Notes -- Appendix For A Competitive European Energy Policy -- Index -- EULA
A stronger, more informed approach to the energy markets The Energy World Is Flat provides a forward-looking analysis of the energy markets and addresses the implications of their rapid transformation. Written by acknowledged expert Daniel Lacalle, who is actively engaged with energy portfolios in the financial space, this book is grounded in experience with the world of high-stakes finance, and relays a realist's perspective of the current and future state of the energy markets. Readers will be brought up to date on the latest developments in the area, and learn the strategies that allow investors to profit from these developments. An examination of the markets' history draws parallels between past and current shifts, and a discussion of technological advancements helps readers understand the issues driving these changes. Energy has always been at the forefront of the economic agenda, being both the key to and a driver for development and growth. Its centrality to the world of finance makes it imperative for investors and analysts to understand the energy markets, irrespective of where on the wide range of energy spectrum observers they fall. The Energy World Is Flat is a guide to the past, present, and future of these crucial markets, and the strategies that make them profitable. These include: Understanding the state of the energy markets, including key developments and changes Discovering the ten pillars of a successful energy investment strategy Reviewing the history of the energy markets to put recent changes into perspective Learning which technologies are driving the changes, and how it will affect investors The recent energy market changes were both unexpected and so fundamental in nature that they represent a true shift in the energy macro- and microeconomic landscape. Investors and analysts seeking a stronger approach to these markets
need the expert guidance provided by The Energy World Is Flat
Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2020. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
Link Print version: Lacalle, Daniel The Energy World Is Flat : Opportunities from the End of Peak Oil New York : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated,c2015 9781118867976
Subject Energy security.;Energy consumption.;Petroleum reserves.;Petroleum industry and trade.;Energy industries
Electronic books
Alt Author Parrilla, Diego