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作者 Bissell, John
書名 Tipping Points : Modelling Social Problems and Health
出版項 New York : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, 2015
©2015
國際標準書號 9781118991992 (electronic bk.)
9781118752753
book jacket
版本 1st ed
說明 1 online resource (234 pages)
text txt rdacontent
computer c rdamedia
online resource cr rdacarrier
系列 Wiley Series in Computational and Quantitative Social Science Ser
Wiley Series in Computational and Quantitative Social Science Ser
附註 Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Acknowledgements -- Introduction -- Part I The Smoking Epidemic -- Chapter 1 Generalised Compartmental Modelling of Health Epidemics -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Basic compartmental model of smoking dynamics -- 1.3 Properties of the basic model -- 1.3.1 Steady-state solutions -- 1.3.2 Steady-state stability -- 1.4 Generalised model inclusive of multiple peer recruitment -- 1.4.1 Smoking-free equilibrium in the generalised model -- 1.4.2 New smoking-present equilibria in the generalised model -- 1.5 Bistability and 'tipping points' in the generalised model -- 1.5.1 Steady-state variation with ϵ -- 1.5.2 'Tipping points' and hysteresis -- 1.6 Summary and conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 2 Stochastic Modelling for Compartmental Systems Applied to Social Problems -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Global sensitivity analysis of deterministic models -- 2.3 Sensitivity analysis of the generalised smoking model with peer influence -- 2.4 Adding randomness to a deterministic model -- 2.5 Sensitivity analysis of the stochastic analogue -- 2.6 Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 3 Women and Smoking in the North East of England -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Background -- 3.3 Interrogating the figures -- 3.4 Materialist and cultural or behavioural explanations -- 3.5 The tobacco industry and the creation of social values -- 3.6 Local voices -- 3.7 Conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Part II Mathematical Modelling in Healthcare -- Chapter 4 Cardiac Surgery Performance Monitoring -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.1.1 Why do we monitor cardiac surgery providers? -- 4.1.2 Professional framework for monitoring -- 4.1.3 Objectives -- 4.2 Statistical framework for monitoring -- 4.2.1 Data collection -- 4.2.2 Data extraction and cleaning
4.2.3 Missing data and imputation -- 4.2.4 Risk adjustment -- 4.2.5 Risk-adjustment methodology -- 4.2.6 The status quo -- 4.2.7 Measuring divergence -- 4.3 A non-stationary process -- 4.3.1 Calibration drift -- 4.3.2 Discrimination -- 4.3.3 A changing population -- 4.3.4 A closer inspection of calibration -- 4.4 Dynamic modelling approaches -- 4.4.1 Model approaches -- 4.4.2 Comparison of model approaches -- 4.5 Case example -- 4.6 Discussion -- 4.7 Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 5 Heart Online Uncertainty and Stability Estimation -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Monitoring live complex systems -- 5.3 The Bayes linear approach -- 5.4 The Fantasia and Sudden Cardiac Death databases -- 5.5 Exploring ECG datasets -- 5.6 Assessing discrepancy -- 5.7 Final remarks and conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 6 Stents, Blood Flow and Pregnancy -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Drug-eluting stents -- 6.2.1 Mathematical model -- 6.2.2 Modelling drug release -- 6.2.3 Modelling the coupled problem -- 6.2.4 Solving the model equations -- 6.2.5 Remarks on modelling drug release -- 6.3 Modelling blood flow -- 6.3.1 Mathematical model of blood flow -- 6.3.2 Application to blood flow in a dog's femoral artery -- 6.4 Modelling a capillary-fill medical diagnostic tool -- 6.4.1 Basic equations -- 6.4.2 Recharacterisation of the model -- 6.4.3 Comments -- 6.5 Summary and closing remarks -- References -- Part III Tipping Points in Social Dynamics -- Chapter 7 From Five Key Questions to a System Sociology Theory -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Complexity features -- 7.3 Mathematical tools -- 7.4 Black Swans from the interplay of different dynamics -- 7.4.1 Nature of the interactions -- 7.4.2 Generator of a BS -- 7.4.3 Domino effect -- 7.5 Validation of models -- 7.6 Conclusions: towards a mathematical theory of social systems -- Acknowledgments
References -- Chapter 8 Complexity in Spatial Dynamics: The Emergence of Homogeneity/ Heterogeneity in Culture in Cities -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Modelling approach -- 8.3 Description of the model -- 8.4 Sensitivity analysis and results -- 8.5 Discussion and conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 9 Cultural Evolution, Gene-Culture Coevolution, and Human Health -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Cultural evolution -- 9.2.1 Self-medication treatment efficacy -- 9.3 Epidemiological modelling of cultural change -- 9.3.1 Drinking behaviour -- 9.4 Gene-culture coevolution -- 9.4.1 Lactase persistence and dairying -- 9.5 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 10 Conformity Bias and Catastrophic Social Change -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Three-population compartmental model -- 10.3 Basic system excluding conformity bias -- 10.4 Including conformity bias -- 10.5 Comparative statics -- 10.6 Summary -- 10.7 Conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- Appendix 10.A: Stability in the conformity bias model -- References -- Part IV The Resilience of Tipping Points -- Chapter 11 Psychological Perspectives on Risk and Resilience -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Forensic psychological risk assessments in prisons -- 11.3 Suicide in prisons -- 11.4 Biases in human decision making-forensic psychologists making risky decisions -- 11.5 The Port of London Authority -- 11.6 Final thoughts and reflections -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 12 Tipping Points and Uncertainty in Health and Healthcare Systems -- 12.1 Introduction: 'tipping points' as 'critical events' in health systems -- 12.2 Prediction, prevention and preparedness strategies for risk resilience in complex systems -- 12.3 No such thing as a 'never event'? -- 12.4 Local versus large-scale responses to risk -- 12.5 Conclusions: the ongoing agenda for research on tipping points in complex systems
Endnotes and acknowledgements -- References -- Index -- EULA
This book focuses on the modelling of contemporary health and social problems, especially those considered a major burden to communities, governments and taxpayers, such as smoking, alcoholism, drug use, and heart disease. Based on a series of papers presented at a recent conference hosted by the Leverhulme-funded Tipping Points project at the University of Durham, this book illustrates a broad range of modelling approaches. Such a diverse collection demonstrates that an interdisciplinary approach is essential to modelling tipping points in health and social problems, and the assessment of associated risk and resilience
Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2020. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
鏈接 Print version: Bissell, John Tipping Points : Modelling Social Problems and Health New York : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated,c2015 9781118752753
主題 Social medicine -- Mathematical models.;Health behavior -- Mathematical models
Electronic books
Alt Author Caiado, Camila
Curtis, Sarah
Goldstein, Michael
Straughan, Brian
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