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作者 Hegerty, Scott W
書名 NAFTA, the peso, and United States-Mexico commodity trade
國際標準書號 9780549014249
book jacket
說明 174 p
附註 Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 68-05, Section: A, page: 2096
Adviser: Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee, 2007
This dissertation applies cointegration analysis to investigate the relationship between the peso-dollar real exchange rate and trade flows for 102 industries between the United States and Mexico. Disaggregating the data to the industry level might help alleviate the "aggregation bias," in which significant effects cancel each other out when part of a single aggregate. It also allows investigation into the characteristics of individual commodities. While long-run effects are emphasized, short-run results are also considered
The first study evaluates the effects of peso depreciation on the Mexican trade balance before incorporating the effects of NAFTA. For roughly one-fourth of the industries studied, a peso devaluation improves the trade balance significantly, but most industries do not register this effect. NAFTA appears to have had a significant impact on a number of industries
The second study evaluates the influence of volatility, or uncertainty, on export and import volume. This uncertainty is shown to have both positive and negative long-run effects, which conforms to economic theory, but the majority of industries are unaffected
In the third study, the basic relationship between the exchange rate and trade is then extended to evaluate the effects of trade liberalization---Mexico's entry into GATT and NAFTA---on the trade flows of specific industries, including those for which NAFTA had been predicted to have a significant impact and those for which previous industrial organization studies had found economies of scale. Because of substantial economic integration between the two countries, most flows are insensitive, but there is substantial evidence that industries that had previously been shown to have economies of scale have been affected by trade liberalization
School code: 0263
Host Item Dissertation Abstracts International 68-05A
主題 Economics, Finance
Alt Author The University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee
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