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作者 Prodanovic, Predrag
書名 Response of water resources systems to climate change
國際標準書號 9780494393161
book jacket
說明 342 p
附註 Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 69-05, Section: B, page: 3163
Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Western Ontario (Canada), 2008
The response of water resources systems is obtained by using meaningful and locally applicable climate change scenarios. In this work, the scenarios are derived through the use of a non parametric weather generator algorithm (able to produce arbitrary long time series records of climate data using locally observed data, as well as Global Circulation Model outputs used to drive the direction of climate change). A method developed for post-processing the weather generator outputs (i.e., the non-paramteric disaggregation algorithm) is able to produce rainfall time series records at arbitrary fine time scales, thus being useful in studies looking at changes to urban water resources management practice resulting from climate change. On a basin wide scale, the inverse approach (where weather generator model outputs are linked with hydrologic models) is used to study the basin response, risk and vulnerability to changing climatic conditions. Flood and low flow frequency analyses are used to quantify changes in magnitude and recurrence intervals of critical hydrologic exposures, therefore providing support for future basin wide changes to water resources management practice
In order to test ways of responding to changing climatic conditions, an illustrative integrated water resources managment model is developed in this work. The integrated model couples the dynamics of physical (hydrologic) and socio-economic processes with a system dynamics model. The main premise of the integrated model is that changes in physical processes within the basin (i.e., flow of water) can not be studied without socio-economic processes (i.e., dynamics of population growth, land development, water use, etc.). The concept of feedback is used in the integrated model to couple physical and socio-economic characteristics, thereby allowing the model to test water resources managment policy options in combination with climate change impact scenarios
The methodology developed is applied to the study area of the Upper Thames River basin, located in Southwestern Ontario, Canada. The main results from the modeling work reveal that changes within the next century will bring more frequent (and more severe) flooding conditions, with a shift to more summer flooding. Extreme low flow conditions are expected to remain at their current, levels, where severe droughts periods will still be likely. Results of the integrated model simulations revealed that availability of fresh water supplies and water use play the most significant role in future regional economic development
Keywords. Integrated water resources management, event and continuous hydrologic modeling, climate change impact on hydrologic regime, flood and low flow frequency analysis, socio-economic modeling with system dynamics, K-Nearest Neighbour weather generator modeling, intensity duration frequency curves, extreme rainfall analysis
School code: 0784
Host Item Dissertation Abstracts International 69-05B
主題 Hydrology
Engineering, Civil
Alt Author The University of Western Ontario (Canada)
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