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作者 Sheehan, Ivan Sascha
書名 When terrorism and counterterrorism clash: Preemptive force and its impact on transnational terrorism. A time series intervention analysis
國際標準書號 9780542525261
book jacket
說明 342 p
附註 Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 67-02, Section: A, page: 0711
Adviser: Dennis J. D. Sandole
Thesis (Ph.D.)--George Mason University, 2006
Problem. The impact of the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), with its emphasis on preemptive military force, is a matter of considerable debate. This dissertation uses a time series intervention approach to evaluate the extent to which the onset of the GWOT (beginning with the invasion of Afghanistan) and related events (the invasion of Iraq, the capture of Saddam Hussein, and the release of photos from Abu Ghraib) are associated with changes in transnational terrorist activity
Methods. After merging transnational terrorism incident data from ITERATE and RAND-MIPT for 1993-2004, I extracted quarterly time series of the frequency, dispersion, lethality, type of attack and type of victim of transnational terrorist incidents. I then used a time series intervention approach (with ARIMA modeling) to test the impact of the GWOT and the other events on the subsequent pattern of transnational terrorist activity
Results. The onset of the GWOT and the release of photos from Abu Ghraib were both associated with significant upward shifts in the frequency and lethality of transnational terrorist incidents. Similar effects were found for the invasion of Iraq when incidents in Israel were excluded. While the onset of the GWOT was associated with an increase in dispersion (number of countries with incidents), the capture of Saddam Hussein had the opposite effect. Both the invasion of Iraq and the release of photos from Abu Ghraib were followed by rises in incidents in Muslim countries. Although hostage takings declined after the onset of the GWOT, they increased significantly after Abu Ghraib. Escalating incidents with multinational victims were significantly associated with the onset of the GWOT and the invasion of Iraq while incidents claimed by or known to be perpetrated by "Islamist groups" were significantly increased only after Abu Ghraib
Significance. While force may be used by governments to preempt future transnational terrorist attacks, the results suggest that at least in the near term it increases such activity, makes it deadlier and/or shifts the tactics or targets. These results appear to be even more likely when force disintegrates into "barbarism" as it did at Abu Ghraib. Conversely, the capture of a significant leader may have a mitigating effect. These findings have implications for policy and conflict theory
School code: 0883
Host Item Dissertation Abstracts International 67-02A
主題 Political Science, General
Political Science, International Law and Relations
Alt Author George Mason University
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